Fire Umbra CielTier 3
at Akihabara Regional
decks
1
(0.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
2-5-1
overall winrate
31.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.4%
avg ELO -5.1 per match
expected value
43.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1182
· median 1182
· range 1182–1182
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
988
Q1 1233
Q3 1408
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
100% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 17.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -13.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.1% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Water Allies | 4.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.2% | -14.0 |
| Fire Oblation | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 2.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | -16.7 |
| Wind Allies | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 2.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 1.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 0.6% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.3% | -1.2 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 0.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Slimes | 0.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.9% | +15.9 |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.6 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ciel | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Guardian | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Vanitas | 0.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Ciel decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
